TDSF Power Plant Part 3: Are Solar Panels Right for Your House?

In Part 1 we learned how solar panels work. In Part 2 I showed our electric bill and discussed how much money we expect to save each year ($1748). In Part 3 I am going to discuss how to decide if installing solar panels is right for both your wallet and your house.

To be clear, I love my system and it seems to be working great for us. That said, let me state emphatically that solar panels are not for everyone. There are both technical and financial reasons why you may not be a great candidate for solar, at least at this time. Let’s see why…

Some Technical Issues to Consider:

• Do you have a south-facing roof with little or no shade?
  
  If the surface area of your roof faces mostly north, east, or west, or if your southern-facing roof is highly shaded, it’s probably not worth getting solar panels (there is an exception I will discuss later).  
  
  You can visit:  https://www.google.com/get/sunroof to get an idea of how much sun your roof gets. This tool allows you to enter your address and get an overhead view of your home and an estimate of how much solar energy you might generate. (Note the age of the picture if you can, as conditions may have changed since it was taken.)
  
  
• How old is your roof? 
  
  The best time to add solar panels is soon after replacing your roof.  If you have to replace your roof after the panels are already installed, you’ll have to pay someone to take the panels down and then put them back up (after your roof is done being replaced).  If your roof is 20 years old, it’s probably better to wait 5 years or so, and then add solar panels when you replace the roof.

Financial Considerations

Financial Considerations break down into 3 categories:

• What is your final cost after incentives?
• How long will it take you to break even (payback period)?
• Can you afford it?

Final Cost After Incentives

What you end up paying is the difference between the purchase price (what the installer receives) and monies returned to you, based on a number of possible incentives. As these incentives will vary by where you live and when you purchase, you will need to keep on top of what is a changing situation. This information is valid as of May 2019 – please do your own research as I am not qualified to give any tax advice and this information is subject to change.

Pre-purchase Incentives

• Federal Renewable Energy Tax Credit (solar) – the American Taxpayers will generously subsidize your purchase with a 30% tax credit through the end of 2019. This site: https://www.energy.gov/savings/residential-renewable-energy-tax-credit has more information. It says in part:

Solar-electric property

-30% for systems placed in service by 12/31/2019

-26% for systems placed in service after 12/31/2019 and before 01/01/2021

-22% for systems placed in service after 12/31/2020 and before 01/01/2022

-There is no maximum credit for systems placed in service after 2008

-Systems must be placed in service on or after January 1, 2006, and on or before December 31, 2021

-The home served by the system does not have to be the taxpayer’s principal residence

• State, Local, and Utility rebates – These vary by location – you will have to look them up. Your sales representative will probably have the latest accurate information (but do your own research as well – mine did a great job but missed a couple of small points which I will discuss as we come to them).

Your final purchase price is adjusted for these incentives. Note that you have to spend the full amount up front and you get the incentives later. (there is an exception to this I will cover, but to be clear, it is not an option I approve of).

My state currently offers a $1,000 payment after the system is operational. We went live on March 26, 2019. Our check arrived less than one month later:

Before receiving this check I was asked to supply my SSN. Apparently, there is some fine print. I am going to get a 1099 for this and may owe taxes on it – one of the items the sellers neglected to mention.

My county will also kick in a $2,500 credit on my property taxes. Some fine print here too perhaps – I recently received a letter from the county acknowledging the credit – which is to be applied to the house portion of my taxes, not the land portion. I believe I pay less than $2500 a year on the portion of my county property taxes that applies to my house – not sure if the rest will roll over to next year or will be lost – stay tuned!

Post-installation Incentives

Once your solar system is producing electricity you may qualify for some additional incentives, based on the amount of electricity you generate. My solar system qualifies for two post-installation incentives, net-metering and SRECS.

• Net-Metering: If your state allows net-metering, they will install a special meter that runs forward and backwards. As your rooftop panels produce electricity over and above what you consume, the excess is sent to the grid and the meter runs backwards. Note that the exact details on how this works varies by state.
  
  In my state, the cumulative surplus, if any, is cashed out once per year. This is not true in all states, so please do your research.
  
  
• Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECS) – one credit is issued for each MegaWatt Hour of electricity produced by your system – the value of these SRECS varies by state and over time.

In Part 2, I described both of these concepts in more detail.

Payback – how long until I break even?

A solar system is not a cheap investment. Before considering this expense, please take the time to estimate how long it will take to get your money back, AKA, your Payback period.

To calculate the payback period, you will need to know:

• Your annual usage (in MWh) of and expense for electricity.
• Your expected annual production in MWh.
• Cost of your system (up front).
• The total amount of your purchase incentives.
• The total amount of your production incentives.

You will have to estimate some of these numbers, just do the best you can.

Calculate your net cost:

Net Cost = Purchase Price – Purchase Incentives

Calculate your annual savings:

For simplicity, assume that you produce more each month than you consume or that previous credits cover the difference so that you never pay an electric bill.

Annual Savings = Annual Electric Cost + Annual Net-Meter Payout + Annual SREC Payout

In my case, the Net Cost will be about $15,400 after purchase incentives, including federal tax credit (30%), state payment of $1,000, and county property tax credit of $2500.

The TDSF annual net savings is $1748 (based on assumptions described in Part 2).

Payback = Net Cost/Net Savings per year

$15400/$1748 = 8.81 years

So if our assumptions prove correct, our Payback Period will be less than 9 years. The system is expected to last about 25 years (it is warrantied for that). In effect, we will be getting free electricity for about 16 years, should we remain in our house that long.

Use this Payback Estimate, along with the other data you are collecting, to help you decide if this investment is good for you. This is, of course, a personal decision. For us, the idea of no longer having an electric bill for the next 25 years (or occasionally a very small bill), and the idea of generating some income from this investment was a compelling argument for our purchase.

As we approach retirement we have looked for ways to reduce our fixed expenses to free up funds for things or experiences that bring us more joy, and to make it easier to ride out any rough stock market periods that may be ahead. We look at this as a form of investment diversification, something I wrote about in an early posting on this site.

Can You Afford It? (What questions should I ask about my finances?)

You have done your research – you know what your Purchase Incentives are, you know what your Post-Purchase Incentives are, you have a Payback Estimate and an idea of how much cash you will have to lay out (some of these numbers will only come into play once you meet with some sales teams, a process I will describe in another post). The big question now is Can You Afford It? Here are some questions to ask yourself to help you figure out the answer:

1. How long do you plan to live in your current house? While no one can say with certainty, it might be foolish to install solar panels if you know you’re moving (or planning to move) in the next few years. 
   
   
2. What is your financial situation now, and what does it look like for the future? If you’re deep in debt or have a low income, solar panels are probably not financially the right move for you.
   
   The federal, state, and local incentives favor those with at least a strong middle to upper middle class income. Mathematically, if you don’t pay much in federal income taxes, the federal tax credit can’t save you much. While the tax credit can roll forward (the unused portion can apply to your taxes in future years), in any one year it can only bring your taxes down to zero (again, I’m not giving tax advice — as always, consult your adviser and do your own due diligence).
   
   
3. Does it make sense to pay up-front for future savings that are likely, but not guaranteed? You are putting up money now (either cash you already have or money you are borrowing) to pre-purchase the ability to generate an expected but not exactly guaranteed amount of electricity for the next 25 years, more or less. To make this decision, you need to understand how much you spend on electricity now (I show you how much we spent over the past 15 months in part 2 ), and what you’re likely to spend in the future. Hopefully the information I’ve covered will help you to start collecting the numbers you will need.
   
   
4. How do you know if you will benefit financially from pre-paying for electricity? If you’re not moving immediately, if you see a benefit in reducing your electric bill, if you’re already well-invested in other markets (e.g. retirement funds, after tax stock investments, real estate) you can think of this as another kind of diversification. It will also reduce the cost of your monthly expenses in the future.
   
   
5. How will this impact the future value of your home? It’s possible that solar panels will make your home more attractive when you sell it sometime down the road. This paper discusses serious research on this topic:  https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-6942e.pdf.
   
   Warning 1 – it is complex.
   
   Warning 2 – many other sites quote from this paper – this is the source. If a site is trying to sell you solar energy they may cherry-pick the numbers they reference from this paper. For example, I see a number of sites using $4 per watt for additional home value.
   
   But it’s not that black and white in the original paper. If you read the full paper you’ll see that California homes come in a little above $4 per watt added value, but homes outside California are closer to $3 per watt additional home value. There are other variables that affect the value of your solar panels as well, like how old the system is when you go to sell your house.
   
   
6. Should I worry about my solar panels being an eyesore? There is an emotional component to the aesthetics of solar systems. Some people just don’t like the way they look. Some are ok if the panels are on the side or rear of the house, but do not want them facing the front of the house. These opinions could limit the pool of potential buyers.  On the other hand, some potential buyers may appreciate having solar panels already installed, and that could make your house more attractive.

How do I pay for solar panels?

Solar panel salesmen will present you with multiple payment options. Like all salesmen, their goal is to make a sale, and if you can’t pay in cash they will be happy to present you with several payment options. I strongly suggest that you pay in cash (OK, I did put part of the cost on a credit card to get some points, but I paid that off immediately).

Here are some of the payment options they’ll offer you, and why I think they’re a bad idea:

1. They’ll offer to arrange the financing. You’ll pay for the panels over time, with interest. Their rates may be less than a credit card (if you have a good credit score) but they’re still not low – I am no expert, but I see rates from 5% (best credit score and shortest term of course) to 17% and higher advertised on the internet.
   
   
2. Arrange your own financing. You could probably get a lower rate by taking out a home equity line of credit with about 4% interest. Even though 4% interest sounds better than 17%, remember that if you finance $25,000 at 4%, you will pay almost $1000 in interest the first year.
   
   Now think back to your annual electric bill – how much will you actually save? Our bill was $1433 per year, so this interest would have reduced our savings to perhaps $450 the first year.
   
   Even if you pay this off in 5 years, you will not start seeing real savings on your bill until year 3 or later. And that is a best-case scenario. If you finance at 8% you may pay more in interest the first couple of years than you paid in electricity on your electric bill. (8% of $25,000 is $2,000 – compared to an annual spend of $1433 on electricity).
   
   Since these systems have a useful life of about 25 years, and the first few years are the most productive,* why would you borrow to do this installation? 
   
   Note: If you’re building a new house and the panels are an expense that ends up rolled into your mortgage, you may not notice a significant difference in your monthly payments.
   
   * Solar panel output tends to decrease about 2% the first year and roughly ½% every year thereafter (your mileage may vary). So after 25 years, you can reasonably expect your panels to produce about 85% of the electricity they produced when they were initially installed. So they may still be useful, but after 25 years the newer technology is likely to be both better and cheaper.
   
   
3. The company will arrange for someone else to buy the panels. Basically, you end up in a lease or power purchase agreement where you’re committing to buy your electricity from whoever purchases the panels, at a specific rate (that may increase by a known amount over time). 
   
   While this is a zero-down option, the real purchaser gets all the tax breaks (and the SRECS), and you still have an electric bill. You’re also setting yourself up for a headache when you go to sell your home, because these leases don’t always transfer easily.

In case I am not being clear enough already, I am very much against these alternative options. If you don’t have the cash on hand and the income to support the tax credits, solar panels are probably not a wise financial choice for you, at least not right now.

In the words of Suzie Orman, ‘YOU CANNOT AFFORD IT – DENIED.’ If you prefer the words of Dave Ramsey, ‘I never agreed to borrowing to pay for (solar panels) and I’m not going to start now.’ Okay – he inserts car purchase or college here, but you get the idea: pay with cash or don’t do the deal!

Stay tuned for Part 4, where we will discuss how to choose a company to buy your solar panels from.